Decision Tool
Roof Life Expectancy Estimator
In development. This tool does not yet produce estimates — its benchmark dataset is still preliminary. The methodology is published below so it can be examined before anyone is asked to trust it.
The Roof Life Expectancy Estimator is not currently available, and it will not produce an estimate. Its underlying dataset — the CRI Roof Life Expectancy Benchmarks — is still preliminary, and the modifier values below are pre-validation placeholders. A tool that returns a confident number from data we have not validated would be worse than no tool at all, so it returns nothing.
We publish the methodology anyway, in full, below. That is deliberate: you should be able to examine and challenge how a tool works before deciding whether to trust its output — not after. It is here to be audited, not used.
What to use instead: the remaining service life of a specific roof is established by physical assessment — a visual survey, a moisture scan, and core samples where warranted — not by a population-level model. If you are facing the decision this tool was meant to inform, work through Repair or Replace? How to Decide, which is published and sourced.
This page will be updated when Benchmarks v1.0 completes validation. We would rather ship it late than ship it wrong.
Methodology (published for scrutiny — not in operation)
This is the method the estimator will use once its inputs are validated. No part of it is running today. The modifier values below are placeholders: they are plausible, they are not yet evidence.
The estimator starts from the service-life ranges in the CRI Roof Life Expectancy Benchmarks (v0.1), then applies documented modifiers:
- Climate: hot/high-UV −10%, freeze-thaw −8%, coastal/hurricane −15%, moderate ±0.
- Maintenance: proactive +12%, reactive ±0, minimal/unknown −18%.
- Ponding water: −12% where reported. “Not sure” applies no modifier but lowers the stated confidence, because ponding is a major unobserved variable.
Remaining life = adjusted range minus current age, floored at zero. Outputs are ranges by design; point estimates would overstate precision. The confidence label reflects how much of the variance the tool cannot see: it drops when inputs are unknown, when the roof is near or past the benchmark range, and always remains at most “moderate” until benchmarks v1.0 validation is complete.
Limitations
- Does not model installation quality — the single largest variance driver in field studies.
- Does not detect existing moisture intrusion; only a survey can.
- Assumes the system was appropriate for the building at installation.
- Benchmark modifiers are v0.1 placeholders pending validation against field data.